This weekend, we have a 13-fight card Milwaukee which is going to be the last UFC on FOX card due to this new ESPN deal. We’re back to getting smaller prize pools with this particular occasion but there’s still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entrance using $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a wonderful top prize are always my favorite contests to pursue so I will be taking some shots in that. Other than that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry max & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will get a good amount of play in cash games. Listed below are a few plays I like for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The most important event is nearly always the best struggle to get into money games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round fight usually makes a whole lot of sense. I think you can pile the main event here as well, but I think Kevin Lee is your must drama of both. He is a -335 favored and -135 ITD in order that he wins he’s going to score tremendously and based on Vegas he has a 77% probability of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he have a high floor, but he likely has the maximum ceiling on the card too. This is where I’ll be starting my money lineup weekly.
GPP drama of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we saw a great deal of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is virtually a PK fight on the gambling odds now. Usually when that happens we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership due to the value. I believe Gordon’s possession will go down because of this and that’s what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes in the maximum pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He lands 3.41 takedowns each 15-minutes. He doesn’t even need a finish to score 100+ points and that is why I enjoy him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he can win then he must score well.
Underdog drama of this week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 cheaper than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s only +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 gaming lineup. I adore the value we are getting there, and that I think Rodriguez wins this fight. I do expect him to be one of the very well-known underdogs on the card, however it’s chalk I am prepared to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it’s likely going to be so not just would he have the triumph, but he would score highly as well. I think if he does win this fight then he ends up on the 1st area lineup and he is my favorite underdog of this week because of this.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I’m not fading Klose since I believe he loses, I’m really picking him to win a Unanimous Decision here. I’m fading him because he is $9.3k and together with his fighting style that I do not see him getting over 10x that wages. If I am making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of them. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus far in his career and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. When he scores around that area again in this particular fight, then pretty much kills your chances in winning a GPP because the other guys in that $9k range probably score higher and probably even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you would like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on each fight, my personal strategies & suggestions, and my selection outlook for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I’m 47-28 to get +169.81u (+$16,981) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the last 7 weeks!)
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