This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some adequate competitions for us with this particular Sunday card. The most important GPP is that a $10 buy-in and $20k goes to 1st place, also there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for this final competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at that $20k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games. With that said, let’s get to some plays I like too as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your safest play on the slate, in my opinion. I believe he’ll be the fighter everywhere this battle goes, and he must predominate. I like locking that win in my money game and I think he’s a good chance at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I really do expect him to become popular in tournaments so in the event that you want to fade the ownership there and attempt to be contrarian, I would definitely need some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is demanding so that he can last all 3 rounds and when he can then Luque could score from the 80s which will not win any GPPs. However, we can use an ~80-point triumph in money games because we only have to conquer half the field unlike those tournaments.
GPP drama of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP drama of the week due to the chances. A little more than a week ago he had been a -255 favored and that is what resulted in his elevated $95 price tag. Now he is only -155 and the value is on Ngannou at his 7.2k price label. I anticipate Ngannou are the greatest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he’ll kill off near half the field. Also, if Cain wins he’s probably scoring over 100-points. I expect his possession to go down the longer his gambling line decreases and that’s what makes him a great GPP play. He does have a 0-point flooring, therefore that I don’t care for him in money game, however for GPPs we need boom or bust to try and get to that 1st place prize.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favourite dog of this week. He’s $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he’s only a +125 underdog. I think he has a fantastic shot of winning this battle and I am picking him to get his hand raised. I expect this to be an extremely close battle, but I think Fili is going to probably be the fighter striking at the higher pace and that is what I think do it for him on the judges‘ scorecards. I don’t see Fili with 100+ stage upside but we do not really need that in his $7.4k price label. I believe he’s a good shot at getting at 10x, so he is playable in most formats for me.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of the week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I think have a hard time seeing her on the $20k lineup at her wages. I enjoy the $9k range a great deal greater than her and all of them have higher ceilings using their grappling-based match programs. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC debut, but that is because she did use grappling there. I really don’t see her doing that in this match because I think Evans-Smith gets got the edge on the ground and she should be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this fight, then she is going to have to do it on the toes and I don’t see her with a high ceiling without a finish. The only reason to use her is because she is going to be super low owned, and it’ll make your lineup contrarian, but I still wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 57-34 for +188.13un (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

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